Who will win the BEast 2022-23?

[Wizard of Westroads]

Excellent post by Gumby...excellent.

Great breakdown of the pieces of a good Jays team. Logical and to-the-point assessment of what is there, expectations, and possible limitations of a hyped Jays squad.
I too do not expect either transfer to be as capable as Ryan Hawkins - Jays were very fortunate in landing him. And while I expect the sophs to make the leap, there may be some hiccups.

This IS the Big East and nothing is a 'given', whether to Prov, X, lil Cr8n, or Nova. Nobody is rolling over and giving lil cr8n a pass. Jays'll have to EARN IT...I believe they will.
Great reality check by Gumby.

Sorry, Git, but I voted for X. Freemantle will bounce back, and Miller is a ++++++ upgrade as coach. Nova obviously could win the BE as well, but the combo of new coach/new PG/no Moore is tough to overcome.

Not down on my Jays at all, but also worth pointing out that if not for a miracle rally against San Diego State, they'd have never played Kansas close, and the national media would be ignoring them.

I have a hard time seeing anyone else winning the BE regular season, because of rebuilding, except for the Dominicans' dandy, Ed Cooley.

[gtmoBlue]

Xuperman,

Miller is fine. 6-8/6-9...205 lbs. Redshirted last season. Reportedly has gained 15 lbs of muscle (now up to 205 lbs)

Mac says he's (Miller) the best shooter on the team. Will be the 6th/7th man along with PG Reef Mitchell. Miller will sub either forward spot.

Mac talked on a podcast 1-2 days ago...talked about 8-deep rotation. Surprised the heck outta me!
That means PG Reef Mitchell, Fwd Mason Miller, SG Francisco Farabello... No Fred King??? I expect King to play, subbing in for Big Ryan.
Especially since the majority on BJU https://www.bluejayunderground.com/viewforum.php?f=8 don't expect much in the way of small-ball lineups.

Small-ball would feature Art or Miller at the 5. Many of the local faithful are pooh-poohing such a notion, for whatever reasons. They envision Big Ryan
playing 30mins/King with 10. An 8-man rotation would not include King imho. We shall see.

[Xuperman]

Yeah,
My brother in law and family lived in Germantown, TN. My nephew was in middle school when he was playing, so he and his dad went to several games. I am pretty sure he had the reputation of being a cut throat sniper, so I am surprised to hear you say that playing some 5 is a possibility. Then again, Jack Nunge has a very nice 3 in his repertoire.

He's basically an unknown to BEast fans, but not for long. If he can get some early traction, look out. Easily could make the All Frosh ream.

[gtmoBlue]

Most are saying we won't see any/much small ball lineups. Hmmm. We shall see.

I'm just going off of Mac's 8-man rotation hint. I really expect to see King playing up to 15-20 MPG as part of a 9-man rotation.

[mel ott]

Francisco is the best shooter; Baylor and Mason are next. I like what Francisco brings to the table with seniority, leadership, defense, and shooting. Mason will backup Arthur at the four I would expect.

[ArmyVet]

I think Creighton is the favorite, but I'm not sure that they'd have 1/100 the hype if they had lost to SDSU in the first round of the NCAAT. Right?

[Django]

I think Creighton is the favorite, but I'm not sure that they'd have 1/100 the hype if they had lost to SDSU in the first round of the NCAAT. Right?

Correct. And the guy who was a major X factor was Rati, and he’s gone back to EU (student visa/No NIL)… but more than SDSU was the close loss tothe eventual NC Kansas, who handled every other team quite easily.

But I’m still voting for my jays because of the emergence of Alexander and Kaluma. As long as Kalk stays healthy and can give us 32/gm I would place my bets on my Jays. We have a big stable of badass guards, which is extremely important in Macs system.

[kayako]

First Chap and now this...Et tu Kayako?

Look, Creighton has a nice squad. There are some nice pieces there for sure. But people are already putting this team in the FF. This is after losing 2 key players who were on the floor 67 MPG and who produced 26 & 13 per game, and were their best outside shooters. I think people are looking at their last handful of games--the blowout win in the BET vs PC and the fine showing vs KU in the tourney--and forgetting that CU was a game from finishing tied for 5th/6th in league play, and missed having to play the league RS Champ a 2nd time.

CU finished 50th in Kenpom last year--2 spots ahead of SHU and 3 ahead of X and 5 ahead of SJU. There is a very easy argument to be made that X has the most returning talent AND they upgraded their coaching considerably. Scruggs could ball but is that a bigger loss than Hawkins and O'Connell? We all think Nembhardt is a player (and he is) and it was a shame that he got hurt. But maybe having Alexander at the point--especially defensively--really helped the team overall. Maybe the kid from SD State doesn't fit right in like Hawkins did. Interestingly So Dak St. played all of 3 teams last year who finished in the Kenpom 100. His shooting #'s against those (3) 39% overall from the floor and 29% from 3. Firing away vs Omaha and their players are slightly different than having guys like Brandon Slater and Colby Jones stick to you for 40 minutes.

Big, big expectations following the Jays this offseason...hope they don't lose that Eye of the Tiger.

Very good post and I get not wanting to concede anything already, especially with Nova having the pedigree + arguably the best raw talent. I think Mitchell is a very nice defensive compliment to Nembhardt, so I expect coach Mac to figure out a way to optimize the PG spot. I also take more stock in their late season surge because much of the minutes were played by true 1st year players in a season with stacked older squads. Hawkins and O'Connell provided great leadership last season, but are we sure that Creighton is going to miss their production? They replaced them with what projects to be even better set of shooters. If they don't win the BE, I think it's because a team pulls a Providence or Nova's talent advantage is overwhelming.

I am not a believer in Nunge and Freemantle combination. It's a pair that may work in the Big Ten, but I'm not sure it's the winning formula to win the Big East. Kalkbrenner and Kaluma don't have this fit problem. Excited to see what Miller can do with this group, though.

[kayako]

Francisco is the best shooter; Baylor and Mason are next. I like what Francisco brings to the table with seniority, leadership, defense, and shooting. Mason will backup Arthur at the four I would expect.

Maybe they were overly optimistic statements, but I've heard that Kaluma was the best shooter in practice last season.

[stever20]

FWIW, from Bart Torvik:

RETURNING MINUTES
Creighton 65.5%
Xavier 63.1%
St. John's 59.6%
Seton Hall 53.6%
Marquette 53.0%
Villanova 48.7%
DePaul 45.3%
Butler 42.3%
Connecticut 36.4%
Georgetown 29.5%
Providence 26.7%

PROJECTED TALENT
Villanova 76.6
Creighton 70.3
Connecticut 63.9
Seton Hall 61.4
Providence 60.9
Xavier 57.4
St. John's 57.2
Marquette 53.7
Butler 52.7
Georgetown 39.2
DePaul 33.2

I think one point on these numbers- I'm assuming they're including Moore like he's normal. Still very much TBA obviously. For the minutes you figure that takes it down by about 16%(he played looks like 81% of minutes last year). So just that would take Nova down to about 32.7% returning minutes. Projected Talent I'd assume to be the same sort of thing.